We are about to make a gamble - a largest one in our short time of speculative dabbling. And with our first option too.

Our Apple option (370 call) expires 2 days before apple will anounce last quarter profits.

So the only way to bet on those earnings is to exercise and hold the stock for few more days, than we have to sell most of it as soon as the results are announced.

Of course, it is a pretty large gamble.

Do we think Apple made a lot of money last quarter? Sure. But people behave weirdly when it comes to Apple, the stock goes down when apple beats its own projected earnings by a wide margin. Why? because people expect it to beat its projected earnings by an even crazier amount. Public expectations are kind of unreasonable when it comes to this company.

So they may beat their HUGE projected earnings by 25% and the stock may still go down.

What would you do?

Would you sell the option for $2,145 profit right now or exercise at $370 and hold the stock until after the quarterly results are announced? We paid 3,300 for the option.